Dressing to the Ninth

There's going to be quite the racket coming up so when it comes to some high-profile rookies and what their club teams are going to do and should do with them for the rest of the season. The rule is that teams can have junior-eligible players dress up to nine games without having the first year of their entry-level contract kicking in. They have more time to send them back before a year of service goes in their career, but that's another story altogether.

The likes of Ryan Murphy, Ryan Strome, and Jonathan Huberdeau were sent back before notching a game under their belt. The big question is for the following guys from the 2011 Draft still in the pros, which I'll talk about, huzzah.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Following Saturday night's hat-trick, the Oilers are going to be hard pressed to make this decision to either keep RNH or to send him back to Red Deer. Undeniably, he has the skill, but will the size and stamina be there for him?? Plus, with all the young guns that they have in Edmonton, do they want to burn a year on his contract and create a logjam for the Oilers for money in the next five years?? Personally, I think that it would definitely help RNH to go back to Red Deer for another season just to dominate and to fill out a bit, but if the Oilers keep winning and he keeps playing top-six time; he could find an apartment right quick.

Gabriel Landeskog: Here's another guy who would enjoy a decent goal-scoring season in Colorado, should the management think he could hang with the team. He's got the size, but it's a matter of what the team will do and what they want to do with the contract. While Landeskog has the guile to be an NHL right now, I believe the Avalanche will send him back to Kitchener for another year of seasoning.

Adam Larsson: The odds are good Larsson will stay up in New Jersey. In four games, he's averaging over 24 minutes of ice time, though he has a minus-1 to show for it. He's playing in key situations and really getting a lot of confidence from coach Pete DuBoer; which makes me think the big Swede will stay in the Swamp this year.

Mika Zibanejad: Senators' coach Paul MacLean said that Zibanejad would get the full nine-game tryout, but beyond that is going to be a question. It seems the Senators are going nowhere fast this season, which makes it hard to put a young kid in that disorganization and maybe warp him. Of course, he hasn't reacted too well to the change in game from over in Sweden, so odds are that's where he'll be destined when his nine games are up.

Mark Scheifele: With Scheifele's big training camp and preseason (4g, 4a), you'd expect he'd light things on fire. Yet, the Jets and Scheifele haven't done much of anything on the ice, which could cause this great story to fall by the wayside; but for the best on a new team trying to find their way in a new place. Scheifele will definitely be a big part of the future of the Jets, but right now-- he could just want to enjoy the splendid time he had in the limelight and build off of that.

Sean Couturier: Couturier had a solid pre-season, enough to get on the Flyers roster; but alas-- it seems he hasn't been able to hang with the regular season side of things. With one assist and a +2 in three games, he hasn't been horrible; but could get lost in the fold if he stays up and starts to decline in performance and ice time.

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There's one definite, two maybes, and the rest will probably see their NHL experience end in the next week, which could be just enough for them to get hungrier and more driven to get back there full time. Or it could break them completely and never be as good as they could have been. It's always a tight-rope walk when it comes to young kids, especially those who are just over three months removed from being drafted into the league.

Testing the Sean-O Rookie Theorem

The theory that no matter how good a rookie is at the start of the season; there will be a darkhorse rookie to tear it up in the second half to win the Calder Trophy. In addition, Jason Spezza is always in the running.

That's how the savant of the Face Off Hockey Show believes the Calder race always turns out. Last year was true, as many thought it could be John Tavares or Matt Duchene-- but Tyler Myers walked away in a runaway over Duchene and Jimmy Howard. Steve Mason caught fire in 2009, while Andrew Raycroft in 2004 over Michael Ryder and Barret Jackman in 2003 over Rick Nash and Henrik Zetterberg.

At the start of the year, many thought it would be one of the Edmonton trio of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, or Magnus Paajarvi (Svensson). When they got off to a slow start, Logan Couture of San Jose kind of took the reigns over. Even with that, Jeff Skinner of Carolina has caught fire as of late, but even now-- Michael Grabner on Long Island has come on as of late, although he could be frowned upon because he's up for the Cy Young Award for more goals than assists.

The big thing with the theorem, and it's genius from Sean, is that for the most part-- most rookie usually can't keep up a torrid pace for a long season; especially when they're still getting their feet wet with the pace from the jump up in ranks. At the same time, you can really tell the elite guys that can actually maintain their pace throughout the season-- though a few have had a sophomore hiccup; then regaining their composure mid-way through the season or the season after. Then again, there's guys like Raycroft who fall off the map after one good season or Jackman, who has been proned to injuries through his career.

We still have time to see if the theorem holds true, but by the looks of it-- Sean-O could have another notch in his belt with this moral victory. If he could only get that Washington/Vancouver Stanley Cup final-- he'll be gold.

Friday Five: Looking Ahead

Since I'm very close to having theme days everyday, like so much radio morning zoo; I might as well bookend the work week with a gimmick. Of course, we'll see how this goes and if it's well liked; keep it moving. In any case, the Friday Five was an old "survey" that seemed to take LiveJournal by storm in the early 00's. May as well do something like that in the early '10s and see if it has legs.

The premise-- five questions are asked and answered. Simple concept, simple idea, simple blogger. It's all pretty much current events for the questioning, though if something interesting jump into the fray; we'll go from there.

1. How many of the top-5 drafted at the 2010 Draft will actually play past 10 games this year??

Last year, we had four of the five top picks play all season, with Brayden Schenn playing only one game in an emergency role. 2008 had all but Alex Pietrangelo play past ten games, while Pietrangelo was sent back to junior last year, too. With this class, I can see Taylor Hall sticking and maybe Tyler Seguin, but after that-- I don't know how quick the other three will go. Erik Gudbranson has the size, but I don't know if Florida will rush him into the line-up for a year; with the Portland duo of Ryan Johansen and Nino Niederreiter being wild cards-- especially as they play for teams who could intermingle a young player into the line-up and get them to develop with the other youngsters and grow with the team. However, a solid pick-- I'd go with three of the five, Johansen and Gudbranson staying in juniors.

2. Staying with rookies, who's going to take the Calder Trophy race by storm??

If you believe in the "Sean-O Rookie Theorem," then none of the top candidates will even get a whiff at the Calder and a second-half surprise player will swoop in and get the hardware. Plus, it's actually a solid year for rookies, especially those who played in the late games last year and during the playoffs-- particularly PK Subban and John Carlson. That said, it's going to take a lot for Taylor Hall NOT to win the Calder. The kid is a dynamic player that the Oilers are building around and is a two-time Memorial Cup MVP. He's a stud and should be making a solid impact to the Oilers roster.

3. There's at least five outdoor games slated this year, with Canadian juniors (two WHL and one AJHL) and the two NHL games. How long before the gimmick goes stale??

While there's no truth to the rumor that Henry Winkler will be at the AJHL game to jump over Joe Thornton, it is getting a little too out of hand. I know people say that it's a great idea and always sells; but at the same time-- it's diluted. This was originally there for a nice appeal game every once a while, then turned into an annual thing-- which is fine, it's a bit special. But when everyone is going to the cash cow, the utter is bound to get chaffed and not produce anymore milk.

4. Where's the best location for the next outdoor game being announced this year??

Sure, it's jumped the shark, but I love gimmicks....as you can tell. The next game HAS TO BE the ECHL announcing that the Idaho Steelheads will play on the SmurfTurf of Boise State. That's like two gimmicks-in-one, which will be gimmick overload for me and I will have to make the journey there to see such a thing. At this point, why won't the ECHL do this-- it'd be fantastic. Though, you can bet the AHL and ECHL will jump on it like the Sugar Hill Gang soon enough.

5. With camps coming up, who is the biggest guy on the bubble right now with their team and in limbo between the NHL and AHL....or lower??

Obviously, you have the guys like Jonathan Cheechoo and Marcus Nilson getting try-out invites; they're definitely on the bubble in terms of staying into hockey. However, guys who are under contract; you have to wonder if Angelo Esposito can come back from a run of bad luck to crack the Thrashers roster, especially with them loading up on the Blackhawks cast-offs. Also, you have to believe that Fabian Brunnstrom of the Dallas Stars could looking at going between Dallas and Cedar Park, Texas if he doesn't have a good camp. After all the hype, Brunnstrom has fallen short after his first 10 game explosion with the Stars. Could be down to Cheechoo and Brunnstrom, which will be an interesting battle.

So, that's it for the Friday Five this week and we'll see what kind of reception it gets. If you have some questions for the F5, as the kids are calling it, email me at Scotty.Wazz@gmail.com with your questions and we'll see if we can work it in here and again.

"Are Young Guys Worth the Big Deal??" or "Bargain or Bust"

CBC's Hockey Night in Canada's internet king Jeff Marek bought up an interesting point about contracts on his Twitter account. He mentioned the fact that you don't see a second contract anymore, as it just goes from an Entry-Level Deal to big money, long-term contract. Marek said this in response to Nicklas Backstrom signing a ten-year, $67M deal with the Washington Capitals on Monday.

While I brought up the case of Mike Green, who didn't sign a long-term deal with his team; Marek's point is a curious one. While Green will be a restricted free-agent at the end of his term, Marek pointed out how the money for these guys escalate after one deal-- which is a tad presumptuous for most of the guys signing these deals. The likes of Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin can be explained because they are elite players at different levels, but when you look up and down the line; the likes of Mike Richards, Patrick Kane, and Jonathan Toews getting the big money after having a so-so start to their career makes you cock your head and wonder if it's for the best.

Sure, each of the ones I named do have a lot of talent and are good for their team and market to associate the face with the team; but to get them a very long-term deal and for that amount of money may seem like a guessing game. While they do have the skill-set in order to succeed, is that skill-set enough to warrant the money and length of deal they are getting from these teams. It almost seems like a panic move on behalf of the General Managers to make sure they don't have a young star make a bold move and hold-out for a bigger or longer deal because they don't want to missed a minute of this kid being on the ice because if he does, then you give him the big deal and he falters; the GM has egg on his face for the deal.

One has to wonder how much offer sheets have to do with this, as well. In an age where there's a possible threat of a rival team snagging your young prospect; maybe GMs have a moment of panic to get these guys signed, which gives the player and his agent the upper hand in demands. Granted, the team will get compensated for the other team poaching the player-- but usually the return does not equal that of what is being given up. Yet, there are times were it breaks even, like in the case of Dustin Penner where nothing lost, nothing gained.

You have to put into the equation of a guy being a one-hit wonder. While the likes of Steven Stamkos, Tyler Myers, and Matt Duchene are going to get their money for their entry level performance; what kind of risk are you taking when you deal with a young player like that who may or may not be able to repeat a performance like that year-in and year-out. One good contract or one good year does not a career make. If a GM puts all his eggs into the basket of a supposed wunderkind who turns out to be a dud, it puts the team in a tight bind to get rid of the contract and start anew.

The interesting thing about this is that people talk about this more often than not now than we have in years past. Is this due to the great talent coming up through the ranks and all or does it have something completely different to do with it. How much is it is talent and how much of it is panic?? Or are the guys coming up being rushed a little too much in certain cases, which makes others look better by comparison, thus skewing the numbers?? The gauge is definitely on a case-by-case basis when it comes to the player and the management and how they see the competition when it comes to going against their team. This is yet another odd thing you can throw into how you value a player.

When you're dealing with a cap-era of sport, you have to be careful and how and where you spend your money. One small miscalculation could cost a team more than just money on other players. It could cost championships, wins, and so on. Plus, if you have too many big name young players getting a lot of money on the same team, you run into have to put yourself at a disadvantage in bargaining a deal because you're in a tight crunch and will do more harm than good to the franchise in the long run. It's a tight-rope walk with too many variables for me to be jealous of some GMs in their position.

Hornqvist Hosed By Calder Rules

Patric Hornqvist is having a heck of a season for the Nashville Predators, leading the team in goals and tied for second on the team in points. Personally, he'd be my candidate for the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year.....if he were eligible. However, since Hornqvist played 28 games last season for the Preds, the Swede is no longer eligible to win the honor.

The rules for eligibility are as such:

To be eligible for the award, a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons in any major professional league. The player must not be older than 26 years before September 15 of the season in which he is eligible.

Thus, with Hornqvist playing three more games than the limit last season, he'll get hosed out of the award for this year; which would be a very dark horse pick considering the lack of attention he has gotten. Hornqvist has 19 goals, six power-play goals, six game-winners, and is a +12 on the season. He's a sound player and will probably shine for years to come with the Predators.

A thing like this will make some wonder if the NHL needs to adjust the rules with it comes to games played for all of this-- especially if Hornqvist builds off of this to have a fantastic season, as well as having more points than the actual first-year guys. I know that rules are rules, but to be deemed ineligible by three games seems a bit silly to me. Especially in a time where call-ups are the norm with all the injuries going on in the sport this day in age.

If the NHL were to bump it up to 35, even 40 games in a season or 15 games in each of the last two seasons, that'd be something I could get behind and would see it a little more competitive in a situation like this. This is a something that could have saved Jason Spezza, who played 33 games in 2002-03; thus making his solid 55 point campaign in 2003-04 null and void for the Calder race. Though he would have lost, odds are he could have been in the race and maybe even more motivated to push for himself and his team. Yet, thanks to the Sean-O Rookie Theorem, he's always eligible.

It's just a shame that a guy like Hornqvist has a legitimate shot at being the ROTY gets screwed because of only three games. He seems to be a great story for Nashville and could have given them more attention for the future, but alas; semantics rears it's ugly head. My hope (and it's not just because I picked him up on my fantasy team) is that Hornqvist keeps pushing like he has been and draws the attention of people and makes them wonder why he isn't considered for the Calder Trophy this year.

Testing Out The Sean-O Rookie Theorem

If you listen to the Face Off Hockey Show like I do, you are fully aware of the Sean-O Rookie Theorem. If you're just a mooch-- what's wrong with you?? In any case, the SRT works as such:

No matter how good a rookie is at the start of the season; there will be a darkhorse rookie to tear it up in the second half to win the Calder Trophy. In addition, Jason Spezza is always in the running.

So, with that in mind-- we look at the early goings of the rookie season, with John Tavares and James van Riemsdyk leading the points for rookies, with Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Del Zotto close behind. However, the hot rookie to start the season, Matt Duchene, has slumped and even demoted to the fourth line for the Avalanche.

Yet, according the theorem, we have to look for a darkhorse rookie who will rise through the ranks and take over the Calder. Going up and down the list, who can we pick out as a possible candidate for the SRT??

There's a lot of defensemen out there who can be considered for the Calder. The hype with big Tyler Myers is certainly worth buying into. Myers plays a tight checking game and has been a welcome surprise for the Sabres into the line-up. Also, Cody Fransen in Nashville could create some buzz if he can continue his solid play in Music City, USA-- though he would get lost in the defense corp with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter in the mix. Also, Davis Drewskie of LA should get some consideration for this award, as well as Olympic consideration as well. Drewskie has been a welcome surprise to the young LA Kings' squad, and is at the top of the chart of ice time. Plus, how could you forget Victor Hedman, who leads all rookie's in ice time and is a vital part on the rebuilding Bolts blueline.

At the same time, we all know defensive defensemen don't get that much consideration if they don't put up points along with it. That's why a player like Del Zotto will get more consideration over the likes of the names above.

Also, you can't look past two Dallas Stars as candidates for this award, with Jamie Benn and Tom Wandell really making some quiet noise. Wandell is a definite darkhorse, but his role playing is fairly unseen; yet Benn could make some noise if given the chance. Benn right now has 13 points in 24 games, which puts him sixth in rookie scoring and seventh on the team. The downside to Benn is maybe getting his time overshadowed by other forwards and getting lost in fold of all of this.

Even with all of that, Evander Kane goes under the radar in terms of consideration. He's second in rookie goal-scoring, he's tied for second in rookie +/-, and eight in rookie points. While he's in a market like Atlanta which often goes unnoticed beyond Ilya Kovalchuk; Kane should be one to keep an eye on should John Anderson give him an increased role with the Thrashers as the season moves forward.

Let's not forget goalie, too. Seymon Varlamov in Washington has played solid with the big club and is 9-1-2 on the season. The trap for Varlamov is not being the clear-cut start, mostly splitting time with Jose Theodore when Theodore is actually rostered for the Caps. Even so, many think Varlamov is the #1, even with coach Bruce Boudreau being coy with it. Jonas Gustavsson has a lot of hype with him, but could be a victim of being on a horrific team, which will inflate his GAA and wins for the season. Even with that, Gustavsson has keep his save percentage at a decent .900. Though, sneaking in-- Tuukka Rask could be a darkhorse, depending on how long Tim Thomas is out for the Bruins. Rask is 7-2-2 for the season and has been a shot in the arm for the B's.

In the end, however, it looks like it could be John Tavares' to lose in all of this. He's playing magnificently and really doesn't seem to be letting the hype or pressure get to him. In fact, he seems to be taking it to heart with all the eyes on him and leading the Isles to an early-season surprising start. He's leading in rookie points and goals and will probably increase those throughout his run. While van Riemsdyk is a surprise, I doubt he'll get the chance to really catch up to Tavares, even though the team around JVR is solid and may get a chance to get more time should his pace continue.

We're a quarter of the way in the season, which gave us a nice look at who's-who in the NHL rookie race and only time will tell in the new calendar year if the SRT will be put into play this season....and if Jason Spezza and finally pull this one out.

Looking at the Rookies

We're at the camping time of the year-- finally the dark days are behind us. A hot topic will be which of the young guns coming into the league will be the one to turn heads and maybe become the franchise player of the future, today. I could put more rambling cliche things in here, but you get the point; so with that-- let's get to some freshmen who could be making waves in the NHL this coming season.

Steve Stamkos, TB: The first overall pick in the '08 Draft, Stamkos has been pimped out the entire summer in the Tampa area. And with good reason, too. After 197 points in 124 OHL games, Stamkos will probably be thrown into the top-six of the Bolts. However, many forecasters have Stamkos between 40 and 65 points this season. There could be that learning curve, but I would expect to see him more in the 70-point area.

Fabian Brunnstrom, DAL: There was plenty of buzz with Brunnstrom from the start of the calendar year, but he landed in Dallas as a final destination. Even with a few years under his belt in the Swedish Elite League, the transition for Brunnstrom could be a longer one than some kids coming out of junior. With the Stars defensive prowess, there's a good chance the point total for Brunnstrom will be lower than most freshmen.

Kyle Turris, PHX: Turris got a small taste last season and netted an assist. Now, with a summer of training under his belt, Turris has a good chance to make his way into the top-six and to many, become a team leader in scoring. With a team like Phoenix, it's a good chance for him to get time on the ice, but somewhat little exposure in the mainstream media-- which will hurt him in the Calder ballot.

Kyle Okposo, NYI: Fast tracked from college to the NHL, Okposo did what he could in his nine games last season, potting two goals and five points; while in the AHL, he put up 19 assists and 28 points in 35 games. With a rebuilding Islanders team, Okposo should be one of the the hot hands for the Isles this season and could create some buzz for the other New York team.

Ted Purcell, LA: Purcell's offensive stride should be able to get him a shot at the top-six slot of the Kings, especially with the departure of Mike Cammalleri. With 83 points in 67 games as an AHL rookie last year, Purcell will probably get plenty of chances to prove himself as a go-to guy for the Kings for this season and beyond.

Nathan Gerbe, BUF: Probably one of the dark horses for the Calder, Gerbe's size will definitely come into question when it comes to if he's ready for an everyday line-up slot. At 5'5, Gerbe will have to do his damnedest to get noticed. Though he led the NCAA in scoring last year in points, Gerbe will have to do even more to get a fair-shot in the pros.

Jakub Voracek, CLB: Voracek is coming off two 60+ assist season in the Q and could be slated to be a set-up man for Rick Nash in the future. However, without many weapons behind Nash and maybe Kristian Huselius, Voracek may have to go about things the hard way in the first few seasons in order to hit the cash cow of being Nash's set-up man.

Now, I'm sure you're probably wondering why guys like Drew Doughty or Zach Bogosian aren't on this list. It's not because they won't make some waves, but most off-- since 1988, only three defensemen have won the Calder Trophy: Brian Leetch, Bryan Berard, and Barret Jackman. With a class like this, odds are that the trend will continue for d-men to be overlooked.

Plus, we have to put into effect the "Sean-O Rookie Theorem" where an out of nowhere rookie will have a hot second-half and steal the show. We'll have to see, but with camps starting up-- we'll be able to weed out the candidate from there.