Testing the Sean-O Rookie Theorem

The theory that no matter how good a rookie is at the start of the season; there will be a darkhorse rookie to tear it up in the second half to win the Calder Trophy. In addition, Jason Spezza is always in the running.

That's how the savant of the Face Off Hockey Show believes the Calder race always turns out. Last year was true, as many thought it could be John Tavares or Matt Duchene-- but Tyler Myers walked away in a runaway over Duchene and Jimmy Howard. Steve Mason caught fire in 2009, while Andrew Raycroft in 2004 over Michael Ryder and Barret Jackman in 2003 over Rick Nash and Henrik Zetterberg.

At the start of the year, many thought it would be one of the Edmonton trio of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, or Magnus Paajarvi (Svensson). When they got off to a slow start, Logan Couture of San Jose kind of took the reigns over. Even with that, Jeff Skinner of Carolina has caught fire as of late, but even now-- Michael Grabner on Long Island has come on as of late, although he could be frowned upon because he's up for the Cy Young Award for more goals than assists.

The big thing with the theorem, and it's genius from Sean, is that for the most part-- most rookie usually can't keep up a torrid pace for a long season; especially when they're still getting their feet wet with the pace from the jump up in ranks. At the same time, you can really tell the elite guys that can actually maintain their pace throughout the season-- though a few have had a sophomore hiccup; then regaining their composure mid-way through the season or the season after. Then again, there's guys like Raycroft who fall off the map after one good season or Jackman, who has been proned to injuries through his career.

We still have time to see if the theorem holds true, but by the looks of it-- Sean-O could have another notch in his belt with this moral victory. If he could only get that Washington/Vancouver Stanley Cup final-- he'll be gold.

Friday Five: Looking Ahead

Since I'm very close to having theme days everyday, like so much radio morning zoo; I might as well bookend the work week with a gimmick. Of course, we'll see how this goes and if it's well liked; keep it moving. In any case, the Friday Five was an old "survey" that seemed to take LiveJournal by storm in the early 00's. May as well do something like that in the early '10s and see if it has legs.

The premise-- five questions are asked and answered. Simple concept, simple idea, simple blogger. It's all pretty much current events for the questioning, though if something interesting jump into the fray; we'll go from there.

1. How many of the top-5 drafted at the 2010 Draft will actually play past 10 games this year??

Last year, we had four of the five top picks play all season, with Brayden Schenn playing only one game in an emergency role. 2008 had all but Alex Pietrangelo play past ten games, while Pietrangelo was sent back to junior last year, too. With this class, I can see Taylor Hall sticking and maybe Tyler Seguin, but after that-- I don't know how quick the other three will go. Erik Gudbranson has the size, but I don't know if Florida will rush him into the line-up for a year; with the Portland duo of Ryan Johansen and Nino Niederreiter being wild cards-- especially as they play for teams who could intermingle a young player into the line-up and get them to develop with the other youngsters and grow with the team. However, a solid pick-- I'd go with three of the five, Johansen and Gudbranson staying in juniors.

2. Staying with rookies, who's going to take the Calder Trophy race by storm??

If you believe in the "Sean-O Rookie Theorem," then none of the top candidates will even get a whiff at the Calder and a second-half surprise player will swoop in and get the hardware. Plus, it's actually a solid year for rookies, especially those who played in the late games last year and during the playoffs-- particularly PK Subban and John Carlson. That said, it's going to take a lot for Taylor Hall NOT to win the Calder. The kid is a dynamic player that the Oilers are building around and is a two-time Memorial Cup MVP. He's a stud and should be making a solid impact to the Oilers roster.

3. There's at least five outdoor games slated this year, with Canadian juniors (two WHL and one AJHL) and the two NHL games. How long before the gimmick goes stale??

While there's no truth to the rumor that Henry Winkler will be at the AJHL game to jump over Joe Thornton, it is getting a little too out of hand. I know people say that it's a great idea and always sells; but at the same time-- it's diluted. This was originally there for a nice appeal game every once a while, then turned into an annual thing-- which is fine, it's a bit special. But when everyone is going to the cash cow, the utter is bound to get chaffed and not produce anymore milk.

4. Where's the best location for the next outdoor game being announced this year??

Sure, it's jumped the shark, but I love gimmicks....as you can tell. The next game HAS TO BE the ECHL announcing that the Idaho Steelheads will play on the SmurfTurf of Boise State. That's like two gimmicks-in-one, which will be gimmick overload for me and I will have to make the journey there to see such a thing. At this point, why won't the ECHL do this-- it'd be fantastic. Though, you can bet the AHL and ECHL will jump on it like the Sugar Hill Gang soon enough.

5. With camps coming up, who is the biggest guy on the bubble right now with their team and in limbo between the NHL and AHL....or lower??

Obviously, you have the guys like Jonathan Cheechoo and Marcus Nilson getting try-out invites; they're definitely on the bubble in terms of staying into hockey. However, guys who are under contract; you have to wonder if Angelo Esposito can come back from a run of bad luck to crack the Thrashers roster, especially with them loading up on the Blackhawks cast-offs. Also, you have to believe that Fabian Brunnstrom of the Dallas Stars could looking at going between Dallas and Cedar Park, Texas if he doesn't have a good camp. After all the hype, Brunnstrom has fallen short after his first 10 game explosion with the Stars. Could be down to Cheechoo and Brunnstrom, which will be an interesting battle.

So, that's it for the Friday Five this week and we'll see what kind of reception it gets. If you have some questions for the F5, as the kids are calling it, email me at Scotty.Wazz@gmail.com with your questions and we'll see if we can work it in here and again.

Hornqvist Hosed By Calder Rules

Patric Hornqvist is having a heck of a season for the Nashville Predators, leading the team in goals and tied for second on the team in points. Personally, he'd be my candidate for the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year.....if he were eligible. However, since Hornqvist played 28 games last season for the Preds, the Swede is no longer eligible to win the honor.

The rules for eligibility are as such:

To be eligible for the award, a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons in any major professional league. The player must not be older than 26 years before September 15 of the season in which he is eligible.

Thus, with Hornqvist playing three more games than the limit last season, he'll get hosed out of the award for this year; which would be a very dark horse pick considering the lack of attention he has gotten. Hornqvist has 19 goals, six power-play goals, six game-winners, and is a +12 on the season. He's a sound player and will probably shine for years to come with the Predators.

A thing like this will make some wonder if the NHL needs to adjust the rules with it comes to games played for all of this-- especially if Hornqvist builds off of this to have a fantastic season, as well as having more points than the actual first-year guys. I know that rules are rules, but to be deemed ineligible by three games seems a bit silly to me. Especially in a time where call-ups are the norm with all the injuries going on in the sport this day in age.

If the NHL were to bump it up to 35, even 40 games in a season or 15 games in each of the last two seasons, that'd be something I could get behind and would see it a little more competitive in a situation like this. This is a something that could have saved Jason Spezza, who played 33 games in 2002-03; thus making his solid 55 point campaign in 2003-04 null and void for the Calder race. Though he would have lost, odds are he could have been in the race and maybe even more motivated to push for himself and his team. Yet, thanks to the Sean-O Rookie Theorem, he's always eligible.

It's just a shame that a guy like Hornqvist has a legitimate shot at being the ROTY gets screwed because of only three games. He seems to be a great story for Nashville and could have given them more attention for the future, but alas; semantics rears it's ugly head. My hope (and it's not just because I picked him up on my fantasy team) is that Hornqvist keeps pushing like he has been and draws the attention of people and makes them wonder why he isn't considered for the Calder Trophy this year.

Testing Out The Sean-O Rookie Theorem

If you listen to the Face Off Hockey Show like I do, you are fully aware of the Sean-O Rookie Theorem. If you're just a mooch-- what's wrong with you?? In any case, the SRT works as such:

No matter how good a rookie is at the start of the season; there will be a darkhorse rookie to tear it up in the second half to win the Calder Trophy. In addition, Jason Spezza is always in the running.

So, with that in mind-- we look at the early goings of the rookie season, with John Tavares and James van Riemsdyk leading the points for rookies, with Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Del Zotto close behind. However, the hot rookie to start the season, Matt Duchene, has slumped and even demoted to the fourth line for the Avalanche.

Yet, according the theorem, we have to look for a darkhorse rookie who will rise through the ranks and take over the Calder. Going up and down the list, who can we pick out as a possible candidate for the SRT??

There's a lot of defensemen out there who can be considered for the Calder. The hype with big Tyler Myers is certainly worth buying into. Myers plays a tight checking game and has been a welcome surprise for the Sabres into the line-up. Also, Cody Fransen in Nashville could create some buzz if he can continue his solid play in Music City, USA-- though he would get lost in the defense corp with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter in the mix. Also, Davis Drewskie of LA should get some consideration for this award, as well as Olympic consideration as well. Drewskie has been a welcome surprise to the young LA Kings' squad, and is at the top of the chart of ice time. Plus, how could you forget Victor Hedman, who leads all rookie's in ice time and is a vital part on the rebuilding Bolts blueline.

At the same time, we all know defensive defensemen don't get that much consideration if they don't put up points along with it. That's why a player like Del Zotto will get more consideration over the likes of the names above.

Also, you can't look past two Dallas Stars as candidates for this award, with Jamie Benn and Tom Wandell really making some quiet noise. Wandell is a definite darkhorse, but his role playing is fairly unseen; yet Benn could make some noise if given the chance. Benn right now has 13 points in 24 games, which puts him sixth in rookie scoring and seventh on the team. The downside to Benn is maybe getting his time overshadowed by other forwards and getting lost in fold of all of this.

Even with all of that, Evander Kane goes under the radar in terms of consideration. He's second in rookie goal-scoring, he's tied for second in rookie +/-, and eight in rookie points. While he's in a market like Atlanta which often goes unnoticed beyond Ilya Kovalchuk; Kane should be one to keep an eye on should John Anderson give him an increased role with the Thrashers as the season moves forward.

Let's not forget goalie, too. Seymon Varlamov in Washington has played solid with the big club and is 9-1-2 on the season. The trap for Varlamov is not being the clear-cut start, mostly splitting time with Jose Theodore when Theodore is actually rostered for the Caps. Even so, many think Varlamov is the #1, even with coach Bruce Boudreau being coy with it. Jonas Gustavsson has a lot of hype with him, but could be a victim of being on a horrific team, which will inflate his GAA and wins for the season. Even with that, Gustavsson has keep his save percentage at a decent .900. Though, sneaking in-- Tuukka Rask could be a darkhorse, depending on how long Tim Thomas is out for the Bruins. Rask is 7-2-2 for the season and has been a shot in the arm for the B's.

In the end, however, it looks like it could be John Tavares' to lose in all of this. He's playing magnificently and really doesn't seem to be letting the hype or pressure get to him. In fact, he seems to be taking it to heart with all the eyes on him and leading the Isles to an early-season surprising start. He's leading in rookie points and goals and will probably increase those throughout his run. While van Riemsdyk is a surprise, I doubt he'll get the chance to really catch up to Tavares, even though the team around JVR is solid and may get a chance to get more time should his pace continue.

We're a quarter of the way in the season, which gave us a nice look at who's-who in the NHL rookie race and only time will tell in the new calendar year if the SRT will be put into play this season....and if Jason Spezza and finally pull this one out.

Calder is Mason's To Lose

The NHL announced the finalist for the Calder Memorial Trophy that recognizes the top rookie for the year. Steve Mason of Columbus, Bobby Ryan of Anaheim, and Kris Versteeg of Chicago are the finalist, but let's be honest-- it's Mason's.

No slight on Ryan, who lead all rookies in goals (31) and points (57), or Versteeg, who was an early season favorite, but turned into a role player; but Mason was the story of the year for the rookies. Mason, from out of utter obscurity, became the reason why the Blue Jackets were able to get into their first playoffs in franchise history. With 33 wins, 10 shutouts, and a 2.29 GAA, Mason was nothing less than stellar when called upon by the Blue Jackets.

Mason was a late-bloomer on all sorts of levels of hockey, but the fact of the matter is that he came on at the right time for the Jackets. With Pascal Leclaire going down to injury for the season and Freddy Norrena being released to make room for Mason in the first place, Mason went in with no pressure, no expectations, and that could have allowed him to play the way he did. As the attention grow onto him, he played up to it and not let the hype get to him. Maybe playing in a place like Columbus was the place for him in order to not get caught up in his own hype machine.

The shock in this was the lack of rookies coming on during the second half of the season, though Ryan may be considered one in that camp, but nothing that was explosive enough to overshadow the feats that Mason put forth. Albeit, you'll have some people maybe putting up an arguement for Nashville's Pekka Rinne, who had 29 wins, seven shutouts, and a 2.38 GAA, but it is not to be in the Music City.

Unless the voters totally turned on Mason for one reason or another, I doubt that he'll lose out on this award on June 18th.

Bye-Bye Brassard

A big blow was dealt to the Columbus Blue Jackets and truly opened up the Calder Trophy race, as Derick Brassard dislocated his right shoulder and is to have surgery which will keep him out for the rest of the season. Brassard was huge for the Jackets and truly shown through as a top-line center, but because of a scuffle-- his shoulder has been injured again and he's out for the season.

First off, you have to wonder about Brassard's durability. This is his second serious shoulder injuries for Brassard, which has wreck his big chances to shine on the big club. Brassard could be considered a liability now and the Jackets could wonder if he can sustain a full year without getting injured. Though, you look at his teammate, Rick Nash, another young guy who was hampered with injuries in his early years and he's now the franchise guy for the Jackets. Maybe lightning can strike twice, and I'm sure the Jackets' brass is hoping the same thing.

Secondly, the Jackets don't have much for scoring talent down the middle. With the loss of Brassard; that eliminated the only scoring talent at center for the Jackets. The Jackets have been looking for a center for the longest time and thought they could have it in Brassard, yet now here we are-- no contingency plan in place. So, on top of a right-handed shooting defenseman, they still need to search for that elusive center.

Third, you have to say with Brassard out-- this opens the door for Steve Mason to shine, not only on the Jackets, but for the Calder Trophy race. Also, for guys like Kris Veersteg, Patrik Berglund, and Blake Wheeler-- it's a huge chance for them to step up and keep on shining through and step up in order to not only make a name for themselves, but they will be a big part of their respective teams' success down the line. While Brassard wasn't the runaway favorite; he was a big favorite after his performance for the first quarter of the season.

It only creates more drama, not only for the Calder race, but for the Jackets' search for a #1 center on a team that needs it.

Looking at the Rookies

We're at the camping time of the year-- finally the dark days are behind us. A hot topic will be which of the young guns coming into the league will be the one to turn heads and maybe become the franchise player of the future, today. I could put more rambling cliche things in here, but you get the point; so with that-- let's get to some freshmen who could be making waves in the NHL this coming season.

Steve Stamkos, TB: The first overall pick in the '08 Draft, Stamkos has been pimped out the entire summer in the Tampa area. And with good reason, too. After 197 points in 124 OHL games, Stamkos will probably be thrown into the top-six of the Bolts. However, many forecasters have Stamkos between 40 and 65 points this season. There could be that learning curve, but I would expect to see him more in the 70-point area.

Fabian Brunnstrom, DAL: There was plenty of buzz with Brunnstrom from the start of the calendar year, but he landed in Dallas as a final destination. Even with a few years under his belt in the Swedish Elite League, the transition for Brunnstrom could be a longer one than some kids coming out of junior. With the Stars defensive prowess, there's a good chance the point total for Brunnstrom will be lower than most freshmen.

Kyle Turris, PHX: Turris got a small taste last season and netted an assist. Now, with a summer of training under his belt, Turris has a good chance to make his way into the top-six and to many, become a team leader in scoring. With a team like Phoenix, it's a good chance for him to get time on the ice, but somewhat little exposure in the mainstream media-- which will hurt him in the Calder ballot.

Kyle Okposo, NYI: Fast tracked from college to the NHL, Okposo did what he could in his nine games last season, potting two goals and five points; while in the AHL, he put up 19 assists and 28 points in 35 games. With a rebuilding Islanders team, Okposo should be one of the the hot hands for the Isles this season and could create some buzz for the other New York team.

Ted Purcell, LA: Purcell's offensive stride should be able to get him a shot at the top-six slot of the Kings, especially with the departure of Mike Cammalleri. With 83 points in 67 games as an AHL rookie last year, Purcell will probably get plenty of chances to prove himself as a go-to guy for the Kings for this season and beyond.

Nathan Gerbe, BUF: Probably one of the dark horses for the Calder, Gerbe's size will definitely come into question when it comes to if he's ready for an everyday line-up slot. At 5'5, Gerbe will have to do his damnedest to get noticed. Though he led the NCAA in scoring last year in points, Gerbe will have to do even more to get a fair-shot in the pros.

Jakub Voracek, CLB: Voracek is coming off two 60+ assist season in the Q and could be slated to be a set-up man for Rick Nash in the future. However, without many weapons behind Nash and maybe Kristian Huselius, Voracek may have to go about things the hard way in the first few seasons in order to hit the cash cow of being Nash's set-up man.

Now, I'm sure you're probably wondering why guys like Drew Doughty or Zach Bogosian aren't on this list. It's not because they won't make some waves, but most off-- since 1988, only three defensemen have won the Calder Trophy: Brian Leetch, Bryan Berard, and Barret Jackman. With a class like this, odds are that the trend will continue for d-men to be overlooked.

Plus, we have to put into effect the "Sean-O Rookie Theorem" where an out of nowhere rookie will have a hot second-half and steal the show. We'll have to see, but with camps starting up-- we'll be able to weed out the candidate from there.