Island of No Escape or Paradise Island??

The folks over at The Hockey News put out an article in their print edition (it's available online if you have a subscription, as well) about John Tavares and how it seems that he's "stranded" on Long Island and won't have the ability to show off his true talent on a national stage because of where he plays and the people around him. It's a topic that seems to have haunted him for a while, as the Globe and Mail tackled the subject in September of 2009.

The points made in both (as I have only skimmed both) are that Tavares is on a team that is struggling and really has no chance for accelerated success to be held over for a long period of time. And to an extent, it's a true statement. Long Island isn't necessarily the most desired place for some of the bigger production players long to be, especially with the crazed reputation of the owner and the unknown of the future of the team and whether they would stay in their mausoleum of an arena for much longer. It doesn't have the allure of what the Penguins had, a superstar player who was drafted and hot shot owner who was able to secure a new arena deal, even when times seem bleak.

But the notion that Tavares couldn't possibly be happy in Uniondale is a tad presumptuous. While it may not be the most desirable place for a young player to get development, it could be what Tavares needs in order to find himself as a player.

Let's be honest, Tavares has always been in the spotlight in his junior career. So much so, that he has a rule named after him in Major Junior hockey, as he was considered an exceptional player in Junior A hockey-- the OHL was allowed to have him available to be drafted at age 14 rather than 15. The spotlight continued to shine through in his first year, putting up 45 goals and 77 points his first year-- then exploding for 170 goals and 356 points in the following 182 games in the OHL before getting drafted. He's a player who has been under the microscope....and maybe it's not for him.

While some other players thrive in the spotlight, thrive in the media attention, and enjoy the criticism to make him better-- Tavares may not be that kind of player. He may have to be humbled for a bit and learn what kind of player and leader he is before he makes a lot of noise on the bigger scene of things. With the Islanders, he's got the ability to have the bigger market feel, but not the big market attention. He's on a team where he can grow and build along with other guys his age, which allows chemistry to build rather than actually having to deal with high-priced free agents coming in for a couple years just to collect a payday. This hardship could be what Tavares wants to show his manner of man he is as a player.

It has been a little rough for Tavares, as success hasn't come easy--- only 72 goals and 169 points in 207 games-- but he's growing as a player and shouldn't be expected to be the wunderkind that Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin were. Plus, he's learning more tricks of the trade while adjusting to NOT being in the spotlight and trying to tune his game to a team mentality rather than just being the whole effin' show for a team. Always good to learn young.

That all said, it does make you wonder about what he could actually do with some kind of support around him that could compliment him well, much like Steven Stamkos has in Martin St. Louis. Also, you have to question of whether the reality check of getting into the NHL after a successful junior career was something he's trying to adjust to.

As it goes, Tavares is excelling this year-- 19 goals and 48 points in 46 games-- 10 goals and 19 points away from his season-highs in the past two seasons of his play. He's signed until the end of the 2017-18 season and will have plenty of time to grow in Long Island....or wherever owner Charles Wang finds a place for him. There's plenty of great things to come from Tavares, but he's going at his own pace and trying to round-out his game in a different location. To assume he wants out just for the sake of wanting out is not only a knock on the Islanders, but also the skill of Tavares that he can't save a team-- which makes me wonder why people would want him if he's just going to be a hanger on.

Testing Out The Sean-O Rookie Theorem

If you listen to the Face Off Hockey Show like I do, you are fully aware of the Sean-O Rookie Theorem. If you're just a mooch-- what's wrong with you?? In any case, the SRT works as such:

No matter how good a rookie is at the start of the season; there will be a darkhorse rookie to tear it up in the second half to win the Calder Trophy. In addition, Jason Spezza is always in the running.

So, with that in mind-- we look at the early goings of the rookie season, with John Tavares and James van Riemsdyk leading the points for rookies, with Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Del Zotto close behind. However, the hot rookie to start the season, Matt Duchene, has slumped and even demoted to the fourth line for the Avalanche.

Yet, according the theorem, we have to look for a darkhorse rookie who will rise through the ranks and take over the Calder. Going up and down the list, who can we pick out as a possible candidate for the SRT??

There's a lot of defensemen out there who can be considered for the Calder. The hype with big Tyler Myers is certainly worth buying into. Myers plays a tight checking game and has been a welcome surprise for the Sabres into the line-up. Also, Cody Fransen in Nashville could create some buzz if he can continue his solid play in Music City, USA-- though he would get lost in the defense corp with Shea Weber and Ryan Suter in the mix. Also, Davis Drewskie of LA should get some consideration for this award, as well as Olympic consideration as well. Drewskie has been a welcome surprise to the young LA Kings' squad, and is at the top of the chart of ice time. Plus, how could you forget Victor Hedman, who leads all rookie's in ice time and is a vital part on the rebuilding Bolts blueline.

At the same time, we all know defensive defensemen don't get that much consideration if they don't put up points along with it. That's why a player like Del Zotto will get more consideration over the likes of the names above.

Also, you can't look past two Dallas Stars as candidates for this award, with Jamie Benn and Tom Wandell really making some quiet noise. Wandell is a definite darkhorse, but his role playing is fairly unseen; yet Benn could make some noise if given the chance. Benn right now has 13 points in 24 games, which puts him sixth in rookie scoring and seventh on the team. The downside to Benn is maybe getting his time overshadowed by other forwards and getting lost in fold of all of this.

Even with all of that, Evander Kane goes under the radar in terms of consideration. He's second in rookie goal-scoring, he's tied for second in rookie +/-, and eight in rookie points. While he's in a market like Atlanta which often goes unnoticed beyond Ilya Kovalchuk; Kane should be one to keep an eye on should John Anderson give him an increased role with the Thrashers as the season moves forward.

Let's not forget goalie, too. Seymon Varlamov in Washington has played solid with the big club and is 9-1-2 on the season. The trap for Varlamov is not being the clear-cut start, mostly splitting time with Jose Theodore when Theodore is actually rostered for the Caps. Even so, many think Varlamov is the #1, even with coach Bruce Boudreau being coy with it. Jonas Gustavsson has a lot of hype with him, but could be a victim of being on a horrific team, which will inflate his GAA and wins for the season. Even with that, Gustavsson has keep his save percentage at a decent .900. Though, sneaking in-- Tuukka Rask could be a darkhorse, depending on how long Tim Thomas is out for the Bruins. Rask is 7-2-2 for the season and has been a shot in the arm for the B's.

In the end, however, it looks like it could be John Tavares' to lose in all of this. He's playing magnificently and really doesn't seem to be letting the hype or pressure get to him. In fact, he seems to be taking it to heart with all the eyes on him and leading the Isles to an early-season surprising start. He's leading in rookie points and goals and will probably increase those throughout his run. While van Riemsdyk is a surprise, I doubt he'll get the chance to really catch up to Tavares, even though the team around JVR is solid and may get a chance to get more time should his pace continue.

We're a quarter of the way in the season, which gave us a nice look at who's-who in the NHL rookie race and only time will tell in the new calendar year if the SRT will be put into play this season....and if Jason Spezza and finally pull this one out.

Playing Possum With Their Pick

By all accounts, John Tavares will most likely go #1 Overall. He seems to be the best player on the board, with the hype in full effect to help him out. Everyone seems to believe that he's the guy to go after since the Islanders need a big boost in order to get them out of the dregs of the NHL standings. But they aren't going all out by saying they'll pick-up Tavares, even insisting that they may go with the Swede Victor Hedman. Of course, the wily Matt Duchence has been mentioned as a darkhorse candidate for this #1 overall spot.

But is that such a horrible idea to keep people guessing?? Especially with the knowledge that a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning need a player like Victor Hedman on their blue line to maybe turn the corner. Plus, what will the ripple effect be if Duchence or Hedman goes before Tavares, how many strategies change, how many teams start to phone up the Bolts to see what they want for their second overall pick?? Does that make the second overall pick the most valuable in this whole draft??

Good on Garth Snow and Charles Wang for keeping their ideas close to their chest and making other teams work out scenarios in their head and working out what to do and what to offer in different situations. To be honest, how could you go wrong with any pick out there?? Tavares a total package that has been talked about for the past three years going in this positions, Hedman is a man-child who has the size and ability to step in tomorrow and head-up the defensive corp, and Duchence is an underrated player who has the skill set and all-around play that could make him beneficial to the future of an organization. Many speculate that Duchence could be picked because the Isles like what they see in him and think he could be more willing to play in Long Island than the other two.

If you're playing the odds, the Islanders would be best going with Hedman, as there hasn't been a big defensive bust since the Bruins picked Gord Kluzak in 1982 as their 1st overall pick. Of course, Kluzak's injuries were his downfall and he holds the distinction for playing the least amount of games for a 1st overall pick pre-2000 with 299 games played. Though, it seems that the defenseman spot is due for a downfall, you wonder if picked-- would the Swede be in line for a disaster, much like Kluzak who was a big, hulking defenseman (like Hedman) when he was picked. Well, it's going to have to happen first for us to get a true gauge.

Yet you have to like the secrecy, the tight-lipped portion of it all and keep it all in house until it's time. You can't really see a downside to it, because it keeps people guessing, keeps people on their toes, keeps the kids wonder and worry in anticipation. It's not a boring sure thing, which is nice at times-- but to keep the media and fans on their toes is an act of showmanship by the Isles and they could use all the attention they could get at this point.

Final Mock Draft For 2009

Now that we're done with the Playoffs, we have three things to look forward to. First, the farce that is the NHL Awards show in Vegas, no less. Third, the Free Agent Frenzy that'll happen on July 1st, but we'll talk about the second part now-- the NHL Entry Draft. We'll have all kinds of mocks, but this right here is my final Mock Draft leading up to the June 26th Draft.

Now, clarification when scoring-- and I don't mean at home. I'm pretty much drafting for position, not so much team. Sure, I'll put why the player would be an asset to the team, but if he lands in that same slot to a different team-- I'll claim victory. I'll also claim victory if a team moves up and picks the player I had them with.

Example: If say the Winnipeg Jets were slated at 20th and I had them picking John McHockeystrom (patent pending), but the Jets trade up to 11th and still pick McHockeystrom-- big in.

Basically-- it's almost fool proof for me to get them wrong-- but I still will. I won't give any reasoning, but if you want a reason, leave it in the comments and I'll see what I can do to explain it. With out any further adieu....

1. NEW YORK ISLANDERS: John Tavares, C, London Knights (OHL)

2. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Victor Hedman, D, MoDo (Sweden)

3. COLORADO AVALANCHE: Matt Duchene, C, Brampton Battalion (OHL)

4. ATLANTA THRASHERS: Jared Cowen, D, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)

5. LOS ANGELES KINGS: Brayden Schenn, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

6. PHOENIX COYOTES: Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, LW, Timra (Sweden)

7. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Nazem Kadri, C, London Knights (OHL)

8. DALLAS STARS: Evander Kane, C, Vancouver Giants (WHL)

9. OTTAWA SENATORS: Olivier Ekman-Larsson, D, Leksand (Sweden)

10. EDMONTON OILERS: Jordan Schroeder, RW, Minnesota (NCAA)

11. NASHVILLE PREDATORS: David Rundblad, D, Skelleftra (Sweden)

12. MINNESOTA WILD: Simon Depres, D, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

13. BUFFALO SABRES: Dmitri Kulikov, D, Drummondville Voltiguers (QMJHL)

14. FLORIDA PANTHERS: Ryan Ellis, D, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

15. ANAHEIM DUCKS: Zack Kassian, RW, Peterborough Petes (OHL)

16. COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS: Scott Glennie, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

17. ST. LOUIS BLUES: John Moore, D, Chicago Steel (USHL)

18. MONTREAL CANADIENS: Peter Holland, C, Guelph Storm (OHL)

19. NEW YORK RANGERS: Jacob Josefson, C, Djurgarden (Sweden)

20. CALGARY FLAMES: Carter Ashton, LW, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)

21. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: Chris Kreider, LW, Andover Academy (USHS)

22. VANCOUVER CANUCKS: Jeremy Morin, C, US NTDP

23. NEW JERSEY DEVILS: Drew Shore, C, US NTDP

24. WASHINGTON CAPITALS: Kyle Palmeiri, C, US NTDP

25. BOSTON BRUINS: Calvin de Haan, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)

26. NEW YORK ISLANDERS (FROM SAN JOSE): Landon Ferraro, RW, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)

27. CAROLINA HURRICANES: Nick Leddy, D, Eden Prairie (USHS)

28. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS: Olivier Roy, G, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL)

29. DETROIT RED WINGS: Stefan Elliott, D, Saskatoon Blades (WHL)

30. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Tim Erixon, D, Skellefta (Sweden)

Draft Lottery Mock Draft

The NHL Draft Lottery was held last night with the New York Islanders finally winning at something important and grabbed the first spot overall for the Draft this June in Montreal. What they will do with it seems to be somewhat obvious, but also somewhat up in the air if someone can sweeten the pot to the point they move the thing.

In any case, I'm going to look into my crystal ball to see if I can predict the outcome for the lottery picks. And by crystal ball I mean bottle of water......because I took some acid and I think this could only do good things for my prediction abilities.

1. NEW YORK ISLANDERS: John Tavares (London, OHL): Really, a no-brainer for the Isles since they have a decent amount of defensemen in their system and need some sureshot scorer in their line-up now.

2. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Victor Hedman (MoDo, Sweden): The Bolts haven't had much luck with getting anything going on the blue line and with their wide array of forwards already signed, this could be the start forming something to help out their goaltending.

3. COLORADO AVALANCHE: Matt Duchene (Brampton, OHL): Duchene could be a spoiler and pop in the top-two, but the Avs will jump on him if he doesn't. He is a speedster and has the nose for the net.

4. ATLANTA THRASHERS: Evander Kane (Vancouver, WHL): A spunky forward who can be a scorer and ruffle a few feathers in order to get his team the advantage.

5. LOS ANGELES KINGS: Brayden Schenn (Brandon, WHL): Schenn has the skill set and passing ability to be the set-up man for the likes of Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown and boost the scoring power for the young Kings.

6. PHOENIX COYOTES: Magnus Paajavi-Svensson (Timra, Sweden): There's plenty of hype with the speed and hands of MPS, but the only doubt is if he can consistently score game-in and game-out.

7. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS: Jared Cowen (Spokane, WHL): If GM Brian Burke can't move up to one of the top two picks, he'll load up on another big defenseman in Cowen. While Cowen was injured, he can actually be a force and team up with Luke Schenn to be a solid duo on the blue line-- which will appease Princess Curl.

8. DALLAS STARS: Nazem Kadri (London, OHL): Kadri's stock was helped out by Tavares' acquisition, but his own skill set put him high in the chart before the thought of Tavares coming to London.

9. OTTAWA SENATORS: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Leksands, Sweden): What's with the Swedes and the hypens?? Anyway, OEL will be another Swedish notch on the defensive prospects that the Sens are stockpiling away. With a +44 this season, his defensive responsibility will be a refresher after this season for Ottawa.

10. EDMONTON OILERS: Zack Kassian (Peterborough, OHL): Kassian is going to be a power forward and may be something that the Oilers will need to support the smaller skill players the Oilers have in their system right now.

11. NASHVILLE PREDATORS: Jordan Schroeder (Minnesota, NCAA): A small forward who can pick his spots from anywhere will give a shot in the arm to the Preds offense when their older vets, like Jason Arnott and Steve Sullivan, start to fade out.

12. MINNESOTA WILD: Ryan Ellis (Windsor, OHL): Ellis is a solid passing defenseman and could be an asset because his defensive prowess is just as good as his offensive awareness.

13. BUFFALO SABRES: Dmitri Kulikov (Drummondville, QMJHL): Kulikov will be a play-making defenseman for any team, which would suit the Sabres well if they start to go to a more offensive style of play.

14. FLORIDA PANTHERS: John Moore (Chicago, USHL): Moore is said to be the most solid skater in this entire draft, but his defensive reliability could be questioned, even though his offensive sense is on the high side of the chart.

So that's that for now, and these could change with the tides and the trades that could come from all of this. We'll have to see where this is going to go and I'll have a full sheet as soon as the season is over--huzzah.

Looking Towards June

Since the trade deadline is over with, the next big acquisition day is the NHL Entry Draft, which will be held June 26th and 27th in beautiful Montreal. And while it's the norm to rank the teams as winners and losers after the deadline, I also find it to be hack. Plus, in the words of Ron Bennington, I've got my own radio show, so you can hear the opinions there.

With most of these moves, you can tell some of these teams are already looking forward to June and their place in the standings are showing that they're going to be in the big hunt for the top five picks in the Draft. So, if the season were to end today...the deadline would have been worthless and we would all feel ripped-off for it ending early. In any event, here's a look at who would be at the top of the Draft chart and who I think will be taken in the top five.

1. NY ISLANDERS: John Tavares, London Knights: While it's not what Tavares probably wanted, he will automatically become the face of the franchise and the guy who will lead this team back to its days of mediocrity. Plus, with youngsters like Kyle Okposo, Jesse Joensuu, and Blake Comeau already in the mix, it'll be the youth movement on Long Island, which may or may not bring them a new arena and new fans. Though, I wouldn't be surprised if Tavares could step in and contribute immediately, but there's also that outside thought he do something to stall his start with the team and maybe create a ruckus to get onto a better team.

2. ATLANTA THRASHERS: Victor Hedman, MoDo: Sure, the defense in Atlanta hasn't been strong since William Tecusmseh Sherman has been in power, Hedman's choice could change all of that. Not only is he NHL size and skill ready, he could very well be what turns this franchise around for the better. They already have offense in Atlanta and with the right help on defense, the goaltending could come around perfectly. Plus, with Garnet Exelby, Zach Bogosian, and Boris Valabik in the rebuilding part of the defense-- Hedman would be the fourth man to complete this perfect storm of defense.

3. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: Jordan Schroeder, University of Minnesota: As a Freshman, Schroeder has been amazing for the Gophers, tied for the team and WCHA lead in points with teammate Ryan Stoa. With his ability to stay in the NCAA, it could allow him to grow as a player and allow the Bolts to get their act together to accomodate Schroeder to play alongside Steve Stamkos. With is great hands and solid passing ability, Schroeder should be the set-up man for the future in Tampa.

4. OTTAWA SENATORS: Evander Kane, Vancouver Giants: Kane is what the Senators are looking for in a player. A solid center with scoring abilities who is coming into his own. While he may need more seasoning with the Giants, what better team to get it done with than one of the best in the junior hockey. Once Kane is ready, he could be the secondary scoring punch they look for or he could very well be a part of the primary scoring in the Sens system.

5. COLORADO AVALANCHE: Jared Cowen, Spokane Chiefs: While his season is done with a knee injury, the Avalanche will look towards Cowen as their future on the blue line. With the size and strength, as well as hockey IQ; Cowen is going to be a stallwart on the blue line for some time in Colorado, or any other team he could go to. With Kevin Shattenkirk waiting in the wings as well, it could be a dominant one-two punch that the Avalanche hasn't seen in a while.

So, that's the top-five as I see it right now, mock wise. One thing is true though, we won't see a goaltender go until maybe the late-second, early third rounds. It goes along with the ebbs and flow of the hockey world where now the skaters and scorers are the top dogs in the prospect pile, while goaltenders are floundering and waiting for another upswing of talent.

Preliminary Rankings for 2009 Draft Released

Today, the NHL's Central Scouting Bureau released their preliminary rankings for the 2009 Draft in Montreal this June. There's not much of a surprise in any rankings, with John Tavares leading the OHL charge, Victor Hedman leading the Euros, but Jared Cowen slowly sneaking up between the two of them and making his case to be a #1 overall pick. With Tavares' stock dropping and Hedman sidelined with a shoulder injury, this could be Cowen's chance to shine.

Cowen really started to come up with the ISS Top-30 having him ranked third behind Hedman in 1st and Tavares 2nd. At 6'5 and 218lbs, Cowen could be considered a North American version of Hedman, which may entice some teams if they have the top pick to take Cowen over Hedman with the transfer agreement stuff that's going on and whether or not Hedman wants to come over immediately.

One guy who could be a dark horse in all of this could be Zack Kassian in Peterborough, who seems like he could be turned into a solid power forward at 6'3 and 205lbs. With a lot of help this off-season, Kassian has turned into a top scoring threat for the Petes after a lackluster season last year, which saw him put up 21 points in 58 games. Through 19 games, Kassian already has 22 points and seems to be poised for more ahead to show off his stuff to the scouts. His injury history could be something that turns teams away, but he could be a solid top-10 choice if he keeps healthy and keeps scoring.

Here's the NHL CSB's rankings by league and country, and-- they open in a new window.

OHL
WHL
QMJHL
NCAA (PDF file on the page)
Europeans (PDF file on the page)

Hedman vs. Tavares

Yahoo Sports man-about-town and New Jersey's favorite son Greg Wyshynski has a post up about John Tavares not being the "Next One", but one thing stood out to me is that Gregy-Pooh said that Tavares was the consensus #1 pick in the '09 Draft. I find that surprising considering the buzz that big Swedish defenseman Viktor Hedman has gotten, with many at the end of last year questioning if Hedman had overtaken Tavares.

However, the debate begins, a mere 11 months before the draft, who will be the first pick of the 2009 Entry Draft: John Tavares or Victor Hedman.

Granted, this is very dependant on who claims the #1 pick in the draft. If you have a team like Tampa Bay, who is very loaded upfront, but could use a young defenseman like Hedman to anchor the corp of defenseman for years to come. Of course, that's just speculation because knowing the Bolts-- they'll go with Tavares to keep with their "Who needs defense" war-cry.

Even with Tavares' buzz factor continuously going, it's hard to discount Hedman and it's quite the decision to have at #1. Even with Tavares' offensive still, Hedman's size at 6'5 and 220 makes him more than ready to step into a NHL uniform in '09-'10. Not only that, but Hedman is a very strong skater with or without the puck with a top-notch hockey sense. Hedman played with the MoDo senior team last season and has shown that he has the ability to play with the big-boys. While comparisons to Chris Pronger may or may not be warranted, Hedman will be sure to formulate his own game when he steps onto the ice. As good as Hedman appears to be, the fact that he could be in Sweden for a few more seasons could turn him off as the #1 pick.

This should take nothing away from Tavares. Tavares has the skills to be a force in the NHL, but many see last season as a dropping off point. Who can blame him, as Tavares played a lot of hockey last season, which caused concern for some people who think it's a little too much for a player his age and may create an early burnout. That said, Tavares will definitely be considered top pick material unless a very drastic drop-off or horrific injury happens to him, then Hedman would be the consensus #1 pick, if he stays healthy and productive.

The debates begin with Hedman vs. Tavares and it should be a hot debate for the upcoming season and will put a lot of focus on both Hedman and Tavares in the upcoming season.